An upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 will crash into the moon.

This drifting stage is approximately 13 m long, with a diameter of 3.7 m and a mass of between 4,000 and 4,900 kg—dry mass, that is, without fuel—since it is assumed to have consumed all its fuel. Therefore, it is as if a typical American yellow school bus, like the one from *The Simpsons*, but with half the mass, were crashing into the Moon at about 8,700 km/h.

This isn’t the first time something like this has happened; in 2020 there was a similar case. Although it was initially thought to be from SpaceX, it turned out to be a Chinese rocket. The rocket’s impact on the Moon created a new crater about 28 m in diameter. This time, the final crater is expected to be of a similar size. The impact site will be near the Einstein crater, in the Moon’s western limbo, close to the boundary between the near side and the far side.

On that day, the Moon will be in its waning phase, and unfortunately, the impact site will be illuminated by the Sun—which is a real nuisance for all amateur astronomers, since the Sun’s glare will make it extremely difficult to see the flash caused by the impact. By the way, these aren’t flames, because usually when I talk about these topics, someone always asks how it is that flames appear when an asteroid hits the Moon—the Moon has no atmosphere that can burn. The flashes sometimes captured from asteroid impacts on the Moon are not flames; they are not fire.

These impacts are caused by rocks heated to enormous temperatures due to the kinetic energy of the impact. In fact, if the asteroid were large enough—we’re talking about hundreds of meters, and to be on the safe side, more than 1 km—it could melt the lunar surface and rocks and temporarily create a lake of lava. In this case, a large cloud of dust might be kicked up, and even if the flash itself isn’t visible, amateur astronomers might be able to observe that dust cloud—though it would be difficult.

The major astronomical observatories are indeed planning to capture this event, as scientists are eagerly anticipating what might happen—they expect the impact to act like a drill and bring the materials beneath the surface to the surface. Keep in mind that the lunar rocks and dust on the surface—what we see when we look at the Moon or view it through a telescope or binoculars— that grayish dust has been altered—it has been baking for millions of years due to cosmic radiation and the solar wind. However, just a few meters below the surface, there are unaltered, pure, fresh, and very ancient materials.

For this reason, NASA plans to use the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to photograph the site before and after the impact and discover what materials and minerals lie beneath. There will be water ice, for example. This event, in addition to its geological interest, highlights another problem—a growing one—namely, space debris in the cis-lunar space or around the Moon, because there are increasingly more commercial, government, and various other types of missions to the Moon.

Remember that not many years ago, a Japanese billionaire proposed a tourist trip to the Moon, and space tourism is one of the activities planned for the Moon, so the amount of space debris around the Moon could begin to multiply in the coming years. For this reason, some experts point out that it is necessary to improve space traffic regulations and design rocket stages that do not remain in orbit indefinitely and eventually crash randomly onto the lunar surface.

And it’s not just because of the risk that they might end up impacting future lunar bases—such as the Artemis base or the Chinese or Sino-Russian lunar base—since China and Russia have an agreement to establish a joint base; it would be unlikely for them to actually hit one of these bases. The Moon’s surface area is 38 million km², more than double that of South America. The problem is that when something impacts the Moon, it propels rocks at high speeds, and due to the Moon’s low gravity and the absence of an atmosphere to slow these projectiles, these rocks—turned into shrapnel—can travel hundreds of kilometers before hitting the ground.

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