Are we truly on a bullish streak, or is Bitcoin simply showing resistance?

josevas217 (80)in PussFi 🐈 • 4 days ago

Hello PussFi community friends, there are certain patterns that tend to repeat themselves in the financial markets, cycles that seem inevitable, and within the crypto world there's something many eagerly anticipate(including myself): the famous bull run. That moment when practically everything goes up, when you see projects that have been dormant for months multiply in price several times over, and when everyone feels that "everything I buy will go up." But honestly, seeing what's happening now, I'm not so convinced that we're actually in that stage yet, although Bitcoin has clearly shown a significant recovery.

_{Source: My TradingView account}

Yes, it's clear that BTC has shown strength. It was hovering around $60,000 and now we're seeing it near $82,000, which is no small feat. Even though it's still far from its all-time high, the movement has been quite solid. But here's where things get interesting: the rest of the market isn't reacting in the same way...

When we're truly in a strong bull run, it's not usually just Bitcoin that rises. What typically happens is that, after BTC leads the way, a huge amount of money starts flowing into altcoins, and that's where we see truly explosive movements. But honestly, that's not what I'm seeing right now.

Even projects as important as Ethereum or Solana haven't performed proportionally to Bitcoin's. And we're talking about two of the most relevant cryptocurrencies in the market. Yes, they've risen somewhat, obviously, but not with the exaggerated force that usually characterizes the most euphoric phases of the crypto market.

Source: My TradingView account

That makes me think there's still a lot of caution. Many people seem to be taking refuge solely in Bitcoin, probably because it's still seen as the "safest" asset within the crypto ecosystem. And that makes sense, especially after everything that happened in previous cycles, where so many projects ended up collapsing brutally.

Furthermore, we can't ignore the global macroeconomic context. Interest rates, economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and the financial situation of many countries continue to significantly affect investors' risk appetite (which I have already discussed in other posts). And although Bitcoin has managed to remain strong within that landscape, that doesn't necessarily mean the entire market is ready to take off.

Personally, I still think we could see a significant drop before it continues to rise. It wouldn't be unusual at all. In fact, Bitcoin historically tends to make quite aggressive moves before continuing a longer upward trend. It often shakes the market, generates fear, liquidates leveraged positions, and then continues to rise when least expected.

Obviously, I could be wrong, because nobody has a crystal ball when it comes to this. And even less so in a market as volatile as cryptocurrencies. This isn't investment advice or anything like that; it's simply how I'm currently viewing market behavior.

_{Source: My TradingView account}

For now, personally, I prefer to wait a little longer to see how this month unfolds. I want to observe whether altcoins truly show strength or if, on the contrary, we continue to see only Bitcoin supporting the market. Because if a sharp correction occurs, better buying opportunities could likely arise for both BTC and some altcoins that I find interesting in the long term.

Sometimes patience is also part of a good strategy. Constantly being in the market and making moves doesn't always mean we're making better decisions. Sometimes, observing, waiting, and acting calmly ends up being more profitable than getting carried away by the emotion of the moment.

But anyway, this is simply my perception based on how the market is currently behaving. Perhaps in a few weeks everything will explode upwards and I'll be completely wrong; that could very well happen. I'd like to know what you all think about this, because honestly, this market always ends up surprising everyone.