Tweeted by gulVasiko
Tweeted by gulVasikova@1846458795868016641
$SpaceX $SPCX reports its first earnings as a public company after the market closes on August 4, with investors focused less on Q2 results and more on whether management can justify the aggressive AI and Starlink growth expected in the second half of 2026.
Since its June IPO, $SPCX has fallen more than 52% from its post-IPO high and is trading just above its record low of $106.97, underperforming alongside AI and space stocks such as $Rocket Lab $RKLB, $Planet Labs $PL, $CoreWeave $CRWV, and $Nebius $NBIS.
Wall Street expects Q2 revenue of $6.8-6.9 billion, up from $4.69 billion in Q1. UBS expects a $0.12 EPS loss, while Morgan Stanley forecasts a $0.35 loss. Analysts expect 2026 revenue of about $39.1 billion, followed by $73.1 billion in 2027, meaning SpaceX must generate roughly $26.6-34.2 billion in revenue during the second half alone. That makes AI and Starlink execution the biggest drivers of the investment story.
Starlink remains the company’s strongest and most profitable business. Morgan Stanley expects subscribers to grow from 8.9 million in 2025 to 16.8 million in 2026, while HSBC forecasts 2026 Starlink revenue of $15.6 billion and EBITDA of $9.5 billion. Investors will watch subscriber growth, ARPU, enterprise and government customers, churn, capital efficiency, and the rollout of Starlink V3 satellites.
The biggest growth engine is AI. SpaceX’s AI business—including Grok, Cursor, X, and AI compute leasing—had about 1GW of compute capacity at the end of Q1, with both HSBC and Morgan Stanley expecting that to double to 2GW by year-end. Large contracts are expected to drive most of the revenue ramp, with Anthropic reportedly paying $1.25 billion per month, $Alphabet $GOOG expected to contribute over $900 million per month, and Reflection AI paying about $125 million per month. Together, Anthropic and Alphabet account for more than 60% of projected AI revenue, making customer concentration and contract durability key issues investors will watch.
Starship also remains an important long-term catalyst. Flight 13 successfully reached near orbit, deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, completed an in-space engine relight, and achieved a controlled splashdown. However, Booster 20 failed during splashdown, meaning full reusability has not yet been proven. Investors will look for updates on Starlink V3 deployment, launch cadence, tower catches, and future Starship milestones.
Another major overhang is the August 6 lockup expiration, when about 912 million shares become eligible for sale versus only 640 million shares currently in the public float. Even a strong earnings report could face selling pressure if insiders choose to sell.
The options market expects a 14-15% move after earnings, with implied volatility around 163%. Technical levels to watch include $110 as major support and $125-130 as the key upside resistance area.
Bottom line: This earnings report is less about Q2 numbers and more about whether management can prove that Starlink growth, AI compute demand, and Starship execution are strong enough to support the massive second-half revenue acceleration that Wall Street expects. AI contracts, capital spending, customer concentration, and the August 6 lockup expiration will likely have a bigger impact on the stock than the headline earnings figures alone.