#fivethirtyeightUnmoderated tagAll postsExplore CommunitiesTrending CommunitiesNewcomers' CommunitySteemitCryptoAcademySteemit Feedbackআমার বাংলা ব্লগKorea • 한국 • KR • KOSteem AllianceSTEEM CN/中文Beauty of CreativityTron Fan ClubAVLE 일상Comunidad LatinaSteem For Lifestyle#fivethirtyeightTrendingHotNewPayoutsMutedpomeline (79)in #fivethirtyeight • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast is now live.More bearish on Democrats than the other Senate models. The model expects Republicans to get ~51-52 seats with…arbitration (78)in #fivethirtyeight • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight's House forecast is now live.Their initial forecast has it as a literal coin toss. Only 9 seats are rated as toss-ups. Only 27 seats are rated…zafrada (78)in #polling • 2 years agoGood thread by G Elliott Morris explaining how FiveThirtyEight's polling averages work and the adjustments they make.This is why I mostly look at their polling averages and not RealClearPolitics or some other basic aggregator. As he…pomeline (79)in #fivethirtyeight • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight's initial Senate polling averages.Yes at least according to the polling, Cruz is in one of the tightest Senate races this cycle. Don't count out some…pomeline (79)in #fivethirtyeight • 2 years agoWisconsin is getting close to likely D territory in the FiveThirtyEight model.Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are all at their highest win probabilities of…zafrada (78)in #national • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight polling update.National: Harris up 2.7. Arizona: Trump up 0.8. Georgia: Trump up 0.6. Michigan: Harris up 1.8. Nevada: Harris…bumblecat (78)in #fivethirtyeight • 2 years agoPolling update.FiveThirtyEight polling update. National: Harris up 3.4. Arizona: Harris up 0.1. Georgia: Harris up 0.4.…leguna (78)in #fivethirtyeight • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight explaining their election forecast model changes.They simplified it so it is easier to understand. Instead of a full Bayesian model, they are running a polling…bumblecat (78)in #cohn • 2 years agoI don't know what is going on with Nate Cohn.It isn't clear it is a different model. And FiveThirtyEight has explained a lot about the model, Nate just seems to…pomeline (79)in #harris • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight's election forecast is now back online with Harris in the race.They forecast she has a 58% chance of winning the election. FiveThirtyEight believes Pennsylvania, North Carolina…pomeline (79)in #rfk • 2 years agoFYI on the effect of RFK dropping out, here is what FiveThirtyEight's model says.Might matter in an election this close, but people probably are overstating it. The other third party candidates are…zafrada (78)in #election • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight polling update.National: Harris up 2.7. Arizona: Harris up 0.7. Georgia: Harris up 0.1. Michigan: Harris up 3.4. Nevada:…zafrada (78)in #politics • 2 years agoFiveThirtyEight polling update.Harris leading by 2.8% nationally. Harris leading by 0.3% in Arizona. Trump leading by 0.1% in Georgia. Harris…bumblecat (78)in #election • 2 years agoCurrent polling map according to FiveThirtyEight.The wrinkle in this is that we wouldn't know who won for weeks due to ranked choice voting in Maine and Alaska. I…zafrada (78)in #election • 2 years agoThe election is so close that there really ain't much difference here between the 538 forecast and this when it comes down to it.Nate Silver's 2024 presidential forecast is now out. His initial probability is Trump with a 65.7% chance to win.…pomeline (79)in #fivethirtyeight • 4 years agoThe meddling business.These are the FiveThirtyEight model forecasts for the six races that Democratic groups ran ads about the MAGA…camaroatc (30)in #blog • 8 years agoSIGDIG- FiveThirtyEightDEC. 6, 2017 AT 8:14 AM Significant Digits For Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017 By Walt Hickey Filed under…
