Fed Week Again: BTC Under $64K, Fear at 29. Here Is the Three-Phase Script These Weeks Always Follow

Hello Steemit,

Bitcoin dropped about 2.8% today to roughly $63,100, Ethereum lost 3.5%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 29. The Fed wraps up its rate meeting this week, and the market is doing what it always does before a macro decision: de-risking.

After enough FOMC weeks, you start to see the pattern. There are three phases, and each one punishes a different mistake.

Phase 1 is positioning, and we are in it right now. Traders cut exposure before the announcement, liquidity gets thin, and small orders push price around more than usual. Dips in this phase often happen on unremarkable volume, like today.

Phase 2 is the knee-jerk. The first minutes after the statement usually bring a violent move in one direction, and then a partial or full reversal as the market digests the press conference. In my experience this is where most retail damage happens, because it tempts people into mid-move entries with full-size positions and no invalidation level.

Phase 3 is the trend. A day or two later, the market settles on a direction that reflects the actual policy path. The cleaner setups historically show up here, which means patience through the first two phases is the whole game.

A detail worth noticing today: KAITO rose almost 12% while SHIB fell more than 12% in the same session. The market is never one trade, and days like this reward evaluating each chart on its own merits instead of trading the overall mood.

My checklist for the week: pick 2-3 pairs max, write down invalidation levels before the announcement, cut position size while volatility is elevated, and accept "no trade" as a legitimate outcome.

Full disclosure: I build CryptoYaanBot, a Telegram analysis tool that scores setups 0-100 with the reasoning shown. That colors how I think about process versus prediction, so take the framework and pressure-test it yourself.

How do you handle FOMC weeks: flatten, hedge, or trade the reaction?

Not financial advice. Just sharing a framework.