In this classic archive lecture from oxford union he breaks down why standard wall street risk models are completely flawed, how to manage market uncertainty like a professional poker player and why critical thinking is the only edge that actually matters.

"Investing and poker require a very similar skillset. You combine what you know with what you think you can surmise combined with understanding the range of outcomes relating to uncertain things and say is this a good place to commit my capital."

"When you can come to a view just a few times a year where you have an important difference of opinion with what everybody else is thinking and figure out that it is important we have been able to make a small number of large investments that work out very well."

"We are wrong often and we have to constantly question whether we are wrong. When a position is not going well it is more likely that we have missed something and so the choice is generally either to reduce or eliminate it."