Trump: What transpired between the announcement and the impotence of escorting tankers in the strait of hormuz

Trump announced that the US navy had been ordered to escort ships through the strait of Hormuz on May 3rd.

Just hours after Trump's announcement, Iran announced that it had fired 2 missiles at an American military vessel that had tried to cross the strait. The US Government has denied the Iranian claim . However the US Govt had previously also declined that two US Navy destroyers retreated in the strait after receiving orders from Iranian vessels. This was later proven by Iranians by the the release of audio recordings .

The announcement from Trump sounds eerily similar to the Uranium retrieval mission that led to the US 2 C-130s being targeted and losing a couple of helicopters .

The Iranian coastline running along the strait of Hormuz stretches roughly 350km long. It is filled with Iranian positions in bunkers and there are caves built and equipped with missile launchers and drones. The width of the strait at the crossing varies from 35 to 80km of shallow waters.

American Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) do not possess the capabilities or vessels required to escort any ships through the strait . Sending naval destroyers in there, given the current situation, would be tantamount to committing hara-kiri and would very likely be refused by their high ranking naval officers.

The Arleigh burke class of destroyers ( eg the USS Roosevelt) are equipped with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, as well as the upgraded AN/SPY-6 radar system. However these systems fare better when they are defending over distance. If projectiles like torpedoes or missiles are fired from just a few dozen kilometers away it reduces the success rate of the defense system because the command center has less time to analyze, predict behavior, and create a data baseline for these missiles to allow for more assertive interceptions.

Due to short distances, assertive interceptions drop substantially as the processing window for the command center is extremely short.

Therefore trying to forcefully open the strait of Hormuz using Arleigh Burke class destroyers would carry a high risk of failure even they were were accompanied by various armed drones and reconnaissance aircraft. Significant risks would still remain .

The threats from Iranians include drones (underwater, surface and aerial) to fast boats, midget submarines, and dozens of anti-ship launchers scattered along the strait. Not to mention that the strait is still heavily mined.

Even when the US Navy deployed a task force during the reent skirmish with the Houthis , whereby the threat was immeasurably smaller, USS Carney sailor Joseph “Papi” Grzybowski described the combat as terrifying.

He mentioned that this was probably the first time the US navy was challenged since WWII. He reiterated that sailors faced immense moments of panic, as they often had only seconds to react to incoming missiles. This while they faced conditions of extreme duress like emotional and physical exhaustion.

Deploying ships to reopen the strait is not something that can be politicized with impact statements like how Trump is showboating.. It is something that currently lacks the adequate means and simply cannot be executed right now without a considerable number of casualties and breaking the very fragile ceasefire and a return to full scale war