Politics in Wales: Reform Vs Plaid Cymru
Today, May 7, 2026, marks a potentially historic turning point for Welsh politics as voters head to the polls for the Senedd election. After 27 years of unbroken Welsh Labour rule, current polling suggests a seismic shift that could end a century of Labour dominance in the country. This is the first election under a new proportional representation system, with the Senedd expanding from 60 to 96 Members and the number of constituencies reduced to 16, each electing six representatives.
The race has essentially narrowed to a two-horse contest for the top spot between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
Plaid Cymru: Led by Rhun ap Iorwerth, the party enters the day with strong momentum, consistently leading final polls with around 30-33% of the vote. They are projected to win between 39 and 43 seats, potentially making ap Iorwerth the first non-Labour First Minister since devolution began.
Reform UK: Under Welsh leader Dan Thomas, Reform has seen an extraordinary surge, polling closely behind Plaid at approximately 27-29%. The party is targeting "red wall" strongholds in the Valleys and Newport, where they may even outpoll Plaid Cymru.
Meanwhile, Welsh Labour, led by First Minister Eluned Morgan, is braced for historic losses. Polling averages suggest they could fall to third place with roughly 12-14% of the vote—their worst performance in over 100 years. In a stunning development, some projections show Morgan herself is at risk of losing her seat in the new Ceredigion Penfro constituency. The Welsh Conservatives are also struggling, trailing in fourth place as their traditional support base shifts toward Reform.
With no party likely to secure a majority, the focus will soon shift to complex coalition negotiations. Plaid Cymru has already ruled out deals with Reform or the Conservatives, making a potential "progressive" coalition with Labour, the Green Party—who are on course for their first-ever Senedd seats—or the Liberal Democrats the most probable outcome. Results are expected to be announced throughout Friday, May 8, as the counts conclude.
