I'm going to go ahead and say whatever figure you think will be burned, will be much less as people are inclined to just hold onto their swth rather than use it for fees to get 50% off because they are gambling on its price being worth more in the future than the savings they'll make on a half price fee...... Once the data comes out and people realise there's a lot less burned than they expected and so the price doesn't change much, they'll start using it for fees and then it will start to increase in value.