Many People Said Steem Would Rise, But It's Dropping.

I had a feeling this was going to happen... despite many people oh Youtube pushing the idea that "HF 19 is going to skyrocket the price because of high demand!" Still the price has been steadily coming down... but it makes sense.

My instinct was that the price would originally drop, why? Because I saw just one of my posts that were instantly effected by the heightened payout from the HF 19 update, and if I got one post and I am not even terribly active then I could imagine that there were thousands of people that got an instant boost from the update. And that means, many people will be cashing out selling.

Most people don't have the foresight to see what is coming. Many of us look at things in the immediate and now, so many people grabbed the profits while they could, maybe it was a good idea (I am not sure, because my foresight is no different than others at times.) And I believe it's this mentality that has contributed to the slight drop in Steem lately.

But I Believe We Have A Large Increase Coming, Here's Why.

My prediction on the timeline of events is this:

• People sell right away from seeing the immediate boost from HF 19
• First 7 days of the HF 19 update people are more active on Steemit, naturally because they are seeing higher dollar amounts they are spending more time here. Much more curation going on. One example, my upvotes on my own post are now worth 25c+, that alone gives authors much more incentive to create as well as hold steem power.
• 7+ days after HF 19 update, curation rewards start rolling in. This includes curation rewards from people upvoting their own posts, as well as all the posts they contributed to upvoting. These payouts are going to be much higher than what we were all used to, for both curator and author.
• At this point people think "Woah, Steem is worth much more than what it was worth 2 weeks ago." And they rush to buy to power up.

I do honestly believe that we will see 100k+ sats and find a new bottom within 60 days. Just a hunch.

But Is The Update Already Priced In?

Personally, I don't think so. Sure, some people that have knowledge of upcoming updates bought in and profited from the recent rise. But once updates are applied and everyone sees it, there really is no telling exactly which way it will go when people start FOMO.

The way I see it, Steem is up about 40-50% in the last 30 days, but upvotes are worth much more than 40-50% than they were last week. I don't know the formula but I see how much my own upvotes changed. I don't think the we have seen an increase in Steem price proportional to the increase in how influencial Steem Power makes you now. Just my thoughts.. What do you think?